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Frem vs Naestved — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Frem
Frem
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Naestved
Naestved
9/7/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 6Valby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Frem41%
×Draw26%
Naestved33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frem
1.40
Naestved
1.23

Frem creates 14% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 43 away

creates per match

Frem
1.40
Naestved
1.19

allows per match

Frem
1.26
Naestved
1.40

finishing

Frem+0.00on par
Naestved+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frem ↓

Naestved →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Frem or draw
67%
Frem or Naestved
74%
Draw or Naestved
59%

Winning margin

Frem wins by 2+
19%
Naestved wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Frem 1+ goals
75%
Frem 2+ goals
41%
Frem 3+ goals
17%
Naestved 1+ goals
71%
Naestved 2+ goals
35%
Naestved 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Frem (draw refunded)
55%
Naestved (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frem at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 53 matches

Naestved away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frem attack 1.40 + Naestved defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Naestved attack 1.19 + Frem defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Frem scores more
41%
level
26%
Naestved scores more
33%

Frem at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Frem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Frem 1 – 1 Naestved

Frem and Naestved drew 1-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Valby Idrætspark in København.