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Frem vs KFUM Roskilde — 3. Division 2021

Frem
Frem
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
KFUM Roskilde
KFUM Roskilde
10/16/20213. Division3. Division · Round 12Valby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Frem57%
×Draw22%
KFUM Roskilde21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frem
1.89
KFUM Roskilde
1.06

Frem creates 78% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 16 away

creates per match

Frem
1.90
KFUM Roskilde
0.94

allows per match

Frem
1.19
KFUM Roskilde
1.88

finishing

Frem+0.00on par
KFUM Roskilde+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frem ↓

KFUM Roskilde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Frem or draw
79%
Frem or KFUM Roskilde
78%
Draw or KFUM Roskilde
43%

Winning margin

Frem wins by 2+
33%
KFUM Roskilde wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Frem 1+ goals
85%
Frem 2+ goals
56%
Frem 3+ goals
29%
KFUM Roskilde 1+ goals
65%
KFUM Roskilde 2+ goals
29%
KFUM Roskilde 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Frem (draw refunded)
73%
KFUM Roskilde (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frem at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.19 · 48 matches

KFUM Roskilde away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frem attack 1.90 + KFUM Roskilde defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.89

KFUM Roskilde attack 0.94 + Frem defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Frem scores more
57%
level
22%
KFUM Roskilde scores more
21%

Frem at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Frem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frem vs KFUM Roskilde

Frem beat KFUM Roskilde 3-2 in 3. Division on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Valby Idrætspark in København.