Frem 3–1 Holstebro: Result & Stats

Frem

FT

3 – 1

Holstebro

9/19/2020

2nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Valby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Frem53%

×Draw24%

Holstebro23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FremExpected goals in this matchHolstebro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.05

Frem

1.73

Holstebro

1.05

Frem creates 65% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 13 away

1.37

creates per match

0.85

1.25

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Frem

1.37

Holstebro

0.85

allows per match

Frem

1.25

Holstebro

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frem+0.00on par

Holstebro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frem ↓

Holstebro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Frem or draw

77%

Frem or Holstebro

76%

Draw or Holstebro

47%

Winning margin

Frem wins by 2+

29%

Holstebro wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Frem 1+ goals

82%

Frem 2+ goals

52%

Frem 3+ goals

25%

Holstebro 1+ goals

65%

Holstebro 2+ goals

28%

Holstebro 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Frem (draw refunded)

70%

Holstebro (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frem at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.25 · 52 matches

Holstebro away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frem attack 1.37 + Holstebro defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.73

Holstebro attack 0.85 + Frem defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Frem scores more

53%

level

24%

Holstebro scores more

23%

Frem at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Frem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff