Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Frem vs Esbjerg — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Frem
Frem
FT
3 – 4
HT: 3 – 2
Esbjerg
Esbjerg
S. Norgaard 44', 38'
L. Lindholm 10'
E. Sorensen 77'
I. Olafsson 69'
M. Jorgensen 14'
Y. Bourhane 12'
9/18/20222nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 7Valby Idrætspark kunstbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Frem30%
×Draw24%
Esbjerg46%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frem
1.29
Esbjerg
1.65

Esbjerg creates 28% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 31 away

creates per match

Frem
1.40
Esbjerg
2.03

allows per match

Frem
1.26
Esbjerg
1.19

finishing

Frem+0.00on par
Esbjerg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frem ↓

Esbjerg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Frem or draw
54%
Frem or Esbjerg
76%
Draw or Esbjerg
70%

Winning margin

Frem wins by 2+
13%
Esbjerg wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Frem 1+ goals
72%
Frem 2+ goals
37%
Frem 3+ goals
14%
Esbjerg 1+ goals
81%
Esbjerg 2+ goals
49%
Esbjerg 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Frem (draw refunded)
40%
Esbjerg (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frem at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 53 matches

Esbjerg away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frem attack 1.40 + Esbjerg defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Esbjerg attack 2.03 + Frem defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Frem scores more
30%
level
24%
Esbjerg scores more
46%

Esbjerg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
L. Lindholm
12'
Y. Bourhane
14'
M. Jorgensen
38'
S. Norgaard
44'
S. Norgaard
69'
I. Olafsson
77'
E. Sorensen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frem vs Esbjerg

Esbjerg beat Frem 4-3 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on September 18, 2022.

Goals: L. Lindholm (10'), Y. Bourhane (12'), M. Jorgensen (14'), S. Norgaard (38', 44'), I. Olafsson (69'), E. Sorensen (77').

The match was played at Valby Idrætspark kunstbane in København.