Frem 1–3 AB Copenhagen: Result & Stats

Frem

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

AB Copenhagen

J. Skovgaard Larsen 35'

F. Ellegaard 80', 39' (pen)

E. Mygind 52'

10/22/2022

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 12Valby Idrætspark kunstbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Frem37%

×Draw25%

AB Copenhagen38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FremExpected goals in this matchAB Copenhagen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.40

Frem

1.39

AB Copenhagen

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 76 away

1.40

creates per match

1.54

1.26

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Frem

1.40

AB Copenhagen

1.54

allows per match

Frem

1.26

AB Copenhagen

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frem+0.00on par

AB Copenhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frem ↓

AB Copenhagen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Frem or draw

62%

Frem or AB Copenhagen

75%

Draw or AB Copenhagen

63%

Winning margin

Frem wins by 2+

17%

AB Copenhagen wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Frem 1+ goals

75%

Frem 2+ goals

40%

Frem 3+ goals

16%

AB Copenhagen 1+ goals

75%

AB Copenhagen 2+ goals

41%

AB Copenhagen 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Frem (draw refunded)

50%

AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frem at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 53 matches

AB Copenhagen away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.37 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frem attack 1.40 + AB Copenhagen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.39

AB Copenhagen attack 1.54 + Frem defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Frem scores more

37%

level

25%

AB Copenhagen scores more

38%

AB Copenhagen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AB Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

J. Skovgaard Larsen

39'

F. EllegaardPenalty

52'

E. Mygind

80'

F. Ellegaard

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff