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Freienbach vs Linth — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Freienbach
Freienbach
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Linth
Linth
4/5/20251. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 23Sportanlage Chrummen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Freienbach44%
×Draw23%
Linth33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freienbach
1.79
Linth
1.52

Freienbach creates 18% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 74 away

creates per match

Freienbach
1.59
Linth
1.47

allows per match

Freienbach
1.58
Linth
2.00

finishing

Freienbach+0.00on par
Linth+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freienbach ↓

Linth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Freienbach or draw
67%
Freienbach or Linth
77%
Draw or Linth
56%

Winning margin

Freienbach wins by 2+
24%
Linth wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Freienbach 1+ goals
83%
Freienbach 2+ goals
53%
Freienbach 3+ goals
26%
Linth 1+ goals
78%
Linth 2+ goals
45%
Linth 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Freienbach (draw refunded)
57%
Linth (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freienbach at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.58 · 73 matches

Linth away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.00 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freienbach attack 1.59 + Linth defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Linth attack 1.47 + Freienbach defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Freienbach scores more
44%
level
23%
Linth scores more
33%

Freienbach at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Freienbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 3: Freienbach 3–1 Linth

Freienbach beat Linth 3-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Sportanlage Chrummen in Freienbach.