Freiburger FC 2–5 SGV Freiberg: Result & Stats

Freiburger FC

FT

2 – 5

HT: 2 – 2

SGV Freiberg

4/27/2022

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 32Dietenbach-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Freiburger FC14%

×Draw17%

SGV Freiberg69%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Freiburger FCExpected goals in this matchSGV Freiberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.65

Freiburger FC

1.13

SGV Freiberg

2.65

SGV Freiberg creates 135% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 26 away

1.52

creates per match

3.08

2.21

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Freiburger FC

1.52

SGV Freiberg

3.08

allows per match

Freiburger FC

2.21

SGV Freiberg

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freiburger FC+0.00on par

SGV Freiberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburger FC ↓

SGV Freiberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Freiburger FC or draw

31%

Freiburger FC or SGV Freiberg

83%

Draw or SGV Freiberg

86%

Winning margin

Freiburger FC wins by 2+

5%

SGV Freiberg wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Freiburger FC 1+ goals

68%

Freiburger FC 2+ goals

31%

Freiburger FC 3+ goals

11%

SGV Freiberg 1+ goals

93%

SGV Freiberg 2+ goals

74%

SGV Freiberg 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Freiburger FC (draw refunded)

17%

SGV Freiberg (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburger FC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

SGV Freiberg away — creates 3.08, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburger FC attack 1.52 + SGV Freiberg defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.13

SGV Freiberg attack 3.08 + Freiburger FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Freiburger FC scores more

14%

level

17%

SGV Freiberg scores more

69%

SGV Freiberg at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "SGV Freiberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff