Freiburger FC 1–2 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

Freiburger FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

F. Amrhein 90'

F. Benko 60'

N. Engel 38'

11/5/2022

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 16Dietenbach-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Freiburger FC23%

×Draw20%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach57%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Freiburger FCExpected goals in this matchSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

2.25

Freiburger FC

1.36

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

2.25

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach creates 65% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 51 away

1.52

creates per match

2.29

2.21

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Freiburger FC

1.52

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

2.29

allows per match

Freiburger FC

2.21

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freiburger FC+0.00on par

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburger FC ↓

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Freiburger FC or draw

43%

Freiburger FC or SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

80%

Draw or SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

77%

Winning margin

Freiburger FC wins by 2+

10%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Freiburger FC 1+ goals

74%

Freiburger FC 2+ goals

39%

Freiburger FC 3+ goals

16%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1+ goals

89%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2+ goals

65%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Freiburger FC (draw refunded)

28%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburger FC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburger FC attack 1.52 + SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach attack 2.29 + Freiburger FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Freiburger FC scores more

23%

level

20%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scores more

57%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

N. Engel

60'

F. Benko

90'

F. Amrhein

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff