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Freiburger FC vs Sandhausen II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
CANC
12:00
Sandhausen II
Sandhausen II
5/16/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 36Dietenbach-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Freiburger FC40%
×Draw22%
Sandhausen II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freiburger FC
1.84
Sandhausen II
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 6 away

creates per match

Freiburger FC
1.52
Sandhausen II
1.33

allows per match

Freiburger FC
2.21
Sandhausen II
2.17

finishing

Freiburger FC+0.00on par
Sandhausen II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburger FC ↓

Sandhausen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Freiburger FC or draw
62%
Freiburger FC or Sandhausen II
78%
Draw or Sandhausen II
60%

Winning margin

Freiburger FC wins by 2+
21%
Sandhausen II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Freiburger FC 1+ goals
84%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
55%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
28%
Sandhausen II 1+ goals
83%
Sandhausen II 2+ goals
53%
Sandhausen II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
52%
Sandhausen II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburger FC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

Sandhausen II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburger FC attack 1.52 + Sandhausen II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.84

Sandhausen II attack 1.33 + Freiburger FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Freiburger FC scores more
40%
level
22%
Sandhausen II scores more
38%

Freiburger FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Freiburger FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Freiburger FC vs Sandhausen II — Match Preview

Freiburger FC face Sandhausen II on May 16, 2021 in this Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Freiburger FC host Sandhausen II at Dietenbach-Sportpark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.