Freiburg U19 3–0 Unterhaching U19: Result & Stats

Freiburg U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Unterhaching U19

P. Fahrner 45+1'

Lee Ji-han 42'

M. Baur 10'

2/12/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 14Möslestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Freiburg U1954%

×Draw21%

Unterhaching U1925%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Freiburg U19Expected goals in this matchUnterhaching U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.46

Freiburg U19

2.20

Unterhaching U19

1.46

Freiburg U19 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 55 away

2.44

creates per match

1.33

1.59

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Freiburg U19

2.44

Unterhaching U19

1.33

allows per match

Freiburg U19

1.59

Unterhaching U19

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburg U19 ↓

Unterhaching U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Freiburg U19 or draw

75%

Freiburg U19 or Unterhaching U19

79%

Draw or Unterhaching U19

46%

Winning margin

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

33%

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

89%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

64%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

37%

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

77%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

43%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburg U19 at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Unterhaching U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburg U19 attack 2.44 + Unterhaching U19 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.20

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.33 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Freiburg U19 scores more

54%

level

21%

Unterhaching U19 scores more

25%

Freiburg U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

M. Baur

42'

Lee Ji-han

45+1'

P. Fahrner

46'

F. Roggermeier← B. Holzmeier

61'

D. Au Yeong← Lee Ji-han

66'

M. Wörner← M. Baur

75'

J. Gottmeier← B. Fröhlich

79'

A. Jogerst← G. Pellegrino

79'

T. Birk← A. Moutassime

81'

D. Girtler← A. Hirtlreiter

Freiburg

Unterhaching

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ji-han

Manager: F. Valente

61'▲D. Au Yeong←▼Lee Ji-han

66'▲M. Wörner←▼M. Baur

79'▲A. Jogerst←▼G. Pellegrino

79'▲T. Birk←▼A. Moutassime

Freiburg U19 substitutes

YeongWörnerJogerstBirkEchnerBrüningHülsenbusch

Manager: S. Teichmann

46'▲F. Roggermeier←▼B. Holzmeier

75'▲J. Gottmeier←▼B. Fröhlich

81'▲D. Girtler←▼A. Hirtlreiter

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

RoggermeierGottmeierGirtlerEcklPeluffo-WieseBucherNollenberger

U19 Bundesliga: Freiburg U19 3–0 Unterhaching U19

Freiburg U19 beat Unterhaching U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 12, 2022.

Goals: M. Baur (10'), Lee Ji-han (42'), P. Fahrner (45+1').

The match was played at Möslestadion in Freiburg im Breisgau.

Freiburg U19 vs Unterhaching U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Freiburg U19 3–0 Unterhaching U19