Freiburg U19 4–3 Stuttgart U19: Result & Stats

Freiburg U19

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Stuttgart U19

M. Wörner 83'

M. Baur 64'

Carlos Gallego 55'

D. Au Yeong 21'

M. Wagner 90+3'

A. Tibidi 28'

T. Kastanaras 6'

9/18/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 4Möslestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Freiburg U1934%

×Draw21%

Stuttgart U1946%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Freiburg U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgart U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

2.17

Freiburg U19

1.85

Stuttgart U19

2.17

Stuttgart U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 74 away

2.44

creates per match

2.74

1.59

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Freiburg U19

2.44

Stuttgart U19

2.74

allows per match

Freiburg U19

1.59

Stuttgart U19

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburg U19 ↓

Stuttgart U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Freiburg U19 or draw

54%

Freiburg U19 or Stuttgart U19

79%

Draw or Stuttgart U19

66%

Winning margin

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

17%

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

84%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

55%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

28%

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

89%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

64%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburg U19 at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Stuttgart U19 away — creates 2.74, concedes 1.27 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburg U19 attack 2.44 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.85

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.74 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Freiburg U19 scores more

34%

level

21%

Stuttgart U19 scores more

46%

Stuttgart U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

21'

28'

55'

62'

M. Wörner← G. Pellegrino

62'

64'

68'

77'

81'

81'

L. Reichardt← L. Mestre

83'

M. Wörner

88'

G. Bunga Capitao← T. Mertz

90+3'

M. Wagner

Freiburg

Stuttgart

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Baur

Moutassim

⚽

▼

Yeong

Manager: F. Valente

62'▲M. Wörner←▼G. Pellegrino

77'▲T. Birk←▼D. Au Yeong

81'▲M. Bleise←▼M. Baur

88'▲G. Bunga Capitao←▼T. Mertz

Freiburg U19 substitutes

WörnerBirkBleiseCapitaoMackHülsenbuschPfauser

Manager: N. Willig

62'▲M. Inan←▼C. Drakas

68'▲M. Wagner←▼D. Knappe

81'▲L. Reichardt←▼L. Mestre

Stuttgart U19 substitutes

InanWagnerReichardtNanaTelles-VillalobosSahinKönig

Match Recap: Freiburg U19 vs Stuttgart U19

Freiburg U19 beat Stuttgart U19 4-3 in U19 Bundesliga on September 18, 2021.

Goals: T. Kastanaras (6'), D. Au Yeong (21'), A. Tibidi (28'), Carlos Gallego (55'), M. Baur (64'), M. Wörner (83'), M. Wagner (90+3').

The match was played at Möslestadion in Freiburg im Breisgau.

Freiburg U19 vs Stuttgart U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Freiburg U19 vs Stuttgart U19