Freiburg U19 3–1 Sandhausen U19: Result & Stats

Freiburg U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sandhausen U19

E. Ouhssakou 85'

M. Reifsteck 52' (pen)

L. Schulten 25'

A. Belachemi 56'

5/4/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 12Möslestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Freiburg U1957%

×Draw19%

Sandhausen U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Freiburg U19Expected goals in this matchSandhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.57

Freiburg U19

2.45

Sandhausen U19

1.57

Freiburg U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 38 away

2.44

creates per match

1.55

1.59

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Freiburg U19

2.44

Sandhausen U19

1.55

allows per match

Freiburg U19

1.59

Sandhausen U19

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Sandhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburg U19 ↓

Sandhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Freiburg U19 or draw

76%

Freiburg U19 or Sandhausen U19

81%

Draw or Sandhausen U19

43%

Winning margin

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

36%

Sandhausen U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

91%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

70%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

44%

Sandhausen U19 1+ goals

79%

Sandhausen U19 2+ goals

46%

Sandhausen U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Sandhausen U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburg U19 at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Sandhausen U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburg U19 attack 2.44 + Sandhausen U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.45

Sandhausen U19 attack 1.55 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Freiburg U19 scores more

57%

level

19%

Sandhausen U19 scores more

24%

Freiburg U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

L. Schulten

35'

D. Villiers← A. Sasso

46'

A. Malaj← D. Maraj

46'

T. Wiesendanger← L. Gamer

52'

M. ReifsteckPenalty

56'

A. Belachemi

62'

A. Guiddir← A. Shala

62'

V. Siontis← J. Mendesevic

65'

E. Ouhssakou← M. Berger

65'

R. Maier← L. Schulten

78'

B. Mohamed← E. Klaus

85'

E. Ouhssakou

86'

J. Makwaya← R. Tarnutzer

86'

L. Thoma← N. Musch

Freiburg

Sandhausen

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Schulten

Sawas

Manager: J. Wiedensohler

65'▲E. Ouhssakou←▼M. Berger

65'▲R. Maier←▼L. Schulten

78'▲B. Mohamed←▼E. Klaus

86'▲J. Makwaya←▼R. Tarnutzer

86'▲L. Thoma←▼N. Musch

Freiburg U19 substitutes

OuhssakouMaierMohamedMakwayaThomaBeck

Manager: I. Erceg

35'▲D. Villiers←▼A. Sasso

46'▲A. Malaj←▼D. Maraj

46'▲T. Wiesendanger←▼L. Gamer

62'▲A. Guiddir←▼A. Shala

62'▲V. Siontis←▼J. Mendesevic

Sandhausen U19 substitutes

VilliersMalajWiesendangerGuiddirSiontisLoos