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Freiburg U19 vs Eintracht Trier U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Freiburg U19
Freiburg U19
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Eintracht Trier U19
Eintracht Trier U19
8/27/2022U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 3Möslestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Freiburg U1977%
×Draw14%
Eintracht Trier U199%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freiburg U19
2.81
Eintracht Trier U19
0.85

Freiburg U19 creates 231% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 10 away

creates per match

Freiburg U19
2.42
Eintracht Trier U19
0.10

allows per match

Freiburg U19
1.60
Eintracht Trier U19
3.20

finishing

Freiburg U19+0.00on par
Eintracht Trier U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburg U19 ↓

Eintracht Trier U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Freiburg U19 or draw
91%
Freiburg U19 or Eintracht Trier U19
86%
Draw or Eintracht Trier U19
23%

Winning margin

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+
57%
Eintracht Trier U19 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Freiburg U19 1+ goals
94%
Freiburg U19 2+ goals
76%
Freiburg U19 3+ goals
52%
Eintracht Trier U19 1+ goals
57%
Eintracht Trier U19 2+ goals
21%
Eintracht Trier U19 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)
90%
Eintracht Trier U19 (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburg U19 at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

Eintracht Trier U19 away — creates 0.10, concedes 3.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburg U19 attack 2.42 + Eintracht Trier U19 defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.81

Eintracht Trier U19 attack 0.10 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Freiburg U19 scores more
77%
level
14%
Eintracht Trier U19 scores more
9%

Freiburg U19 at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Freiburg U19 4 – 0 Eintracht Trier U19

Freiburg U19 beat Eintracht Trier U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Möslestadion in Freiburg im Breisgau.