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Freiburg II vs Waldhof Mannheim — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Freiburg II
Freiburg II
FT
2 – 2
Waldhof Mannheim
Waldhof Mannheim
1/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Dreisamstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Freiburg II36%
×Draw24%
Waldhof Mannheim41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freiburg II
1.53
Waldhof Mannheim
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Freiburg II
1.67
Waldhof Mannheim
1.80

allows per match

Freiburg II
1.50
Waldhof Mannheim
1.40

finishing

Freiburg II+0.00on par
Waldhof Mannheim+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburg II ↓

Waldhof Mannheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Freiburg II or draw
59%
Freiburg II or Waldhof Mannheim
76%
Draw or Waldhof Mannheim
64%

Winning margin

Freiburg II wins by 2+
17%
Waldhof Mannheim wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Freiburg II 1+ goals
78%
Freiburg II 2+ goals
45%
Freiburg II 3+ goals
20%
Waldhof Mannheim 1+ goals
81%
Waldhof Mannheim 2+ goals
49%
Waldhof Mannheim 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Freiburg II (draw refunded)
47%
Waldhof Mannheim (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburg II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Waldhof Mannheim away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburg II attack 1.67 + Waldhof Mannheim defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Waldhof Mannheim attack 1.80 + Freiburg II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Freiburg II scores more
36%
level
24%
Waldhof Mannheim scores more
41%

Waldhof Mannheim at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Waldhof Mannheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Freiburg II 2–2 Waldhof Mannheim

Freiburg II and Waldhof Mannheim drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Dreisamstadion in Freiburg im Breisgau.