Freiburg II 3–2 FC 08 Homburg: Result & Stats

Freiburg II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

FC 08 Homburg

1/31/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Freiburg II27%

×Draw21%

FC 08 Homburg52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Freiburg IIExpected goals in this matchFC 08 Homburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

2.13

Freiburg II

1.48

FC 08 Homburg

2.13

FC 08 Homburg creates 44% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

1.33

creates per match

2.71

1.56

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Freiburg II

1.33

FC 08 Homburg

2.71

allows per match

Freiburg II

1.56

FC 08 Homburg

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freiburg II+0.00on par

FC 08 Homburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburg II ↓

FC 08 Homburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Freiburg II or draw

48%

Freiburg II or FC 08 Homburg

79%

Draw or FC 08 Homburg

73%

Winning margin

Freiburg II wins by 2+

12%

FC 08 Homburg wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Freiburg II 1+ goals

77%

Freiburg II 2+ goals

43%

Freiburg II 3+ goals

19%

FC 08 Homburg 1+ goals

88%

FC 08 Homburg 2+ goals

63%

FC 08 Homburg 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Freiburg II (draw refunded)

34%

FC 08 Homburg (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburg II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

FC 08 Homburg away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburg II attack 1.33 + FC 08 Homburg defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

FC 08 Homburg attack 2.71 + Freiburg II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Freiburg II scores more

27%

level

21%

FC 08 Homburg scores more

52%

FC 08 Homburg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC 08 Homburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff