Freiburg II vs FC 08 Homburg — League #86 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 11+ matches
Freiburg II35%
FC 08 Homburg42%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FC 08 Homburg creates 11% more chances
Season form · 11 home / 23 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over67
- Under33
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes67
- No33
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Freiburg II ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Freiburg II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches
FC 08 Homburg away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Freiburg II attack 2.00 + FC 08 Homburg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.63
FC 08 Homburg attack 1.61 + Freiburg II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
FC 08 Homburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "FC 08 Homburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetingsFC 08 Homburg
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Eintracht Trier
Stuttgarter Kickers
FSV Frankfurt
Hessen Kassel
TSV Steinbach
SV SandhausenFreiburg II
FC Astoria Walldorf
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
SGV Freiberg
Balingen
Bayern Alzenau
Kickers Offenbach
Bahlinger SC
Schott Mainz
FSV Mainz 05 IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Freiburg II host FC 08 Homburg on Saturday, 29 May 2021 at 12:00. The match is part of the League #86 2026/2027 season.
League #86: Freiburg II 0–1 FC 08 Homburg
FC 08 Homburg beat Freiburg II 1-0 in League #86 on May 29, 2021.
Goals: D. Marčeta (72').
The match was played at Möslestadion in Freiburg im Breisgau.