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Freialdenhoven vs Viktoria Arnoldsweiler — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Freialdenhoven
Freialdenhoven
FT
0 – 2
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
9/13/2020Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 2Sportanlage Ederener Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Freialdenhoven50%
×Draw22%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freialdenhoven
2.02
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.47

Freialdenhoven creates 37% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 36 away

creates per match

Freialdenhoven
1.45
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.36

allows per match

Freialdenhoven
1.57
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
2.58

finishing

Freialdenhoven+0.00on par
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freialdenhoven ↓

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Freialdenhoven or draw
72%
Freialdenhoven or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
78%
Draw or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
50%

Winning margin

Freialdenhoven wins by 2+
29%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Freialdenhoven 1+ goals
87%
Freialdenhoven 2+ goals
60%
Freialdenhoven 3+ goals
33%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals
77%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals
43%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)
64%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freialdenhoven at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.58 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freialdenhoven attack 1.45 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.02

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.36 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Freialdenhoven scores more
50%
level
22%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more
28%

Freialdenhoven at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Freialdenhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Freialdenhoven 0–2 Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler beat Freialdenhoven 2-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Sportanlage Ederener Straße in Aldenhoven.