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Freialdenhoven vs Union Schafhausen — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Freialdenhoven
Freialdenhoven
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Union Schafhausen
Union Schafhausen
10/22/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 11Kunstrasenplatz Freialdenhoven

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Freialdenhoven55%
×Draw21%
Union Schafhausen24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freialdenhoven
2.04
Union Schafhausen
1.27

Freialdenhoven creates 61% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 29 away

creates per match

Freialdenhoven
1.45
Union Schafhausen
0.97

allows per match

Freialdenhoven
1.57
Union Schafhausen
2.62

finishing

Freialdenhoven+0.00on par
Union Schafhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freialdenhoven ↓

Union Schafhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Freialdenhoven or draw
76%
Freialdenhoven or Union Schafhausen
79%
Draw or Union Schafhausen
45%

Winning margin

Freialdenhoven wins by 2+
33%
Union Schafhausen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Freialdenhoven 1+ goals
87%
Freialdenhoven 2+ goals
60%
Freialdenhoven 3+ goals
33%
Union Schafhausen 1+ goals
72%
Union Schafhausen 2+ goals
36%
Union Schafhausen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)
70%
Union Schafhausen (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freialdenhoven at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

Union Schafhausen away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freialdenhoven attack 1.45 + Union Schafhausen defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.04

Union Schafhausen attack 0.97 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Freialdenhoven scores more
55%
level
21%
Union Schafhausen scores more
24%

Freialdenhoven at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Freialdenhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Freialdenhoven vs Union Schafhausen

Union Schafhausen beat Freialdenhoven 4-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Freialdenhoven in Aldenhoven.