Freialdenhoven 1–1 Germania Teveren: Result & Stats

Freialdenhoven

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Germania Teveren

8/27/2023

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 3Sportanlage Ederener Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Freialdenhoven57%

×Draw19%

Germania Teveren24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FreialdenhovenExpected goals in this matchGermania Teveren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.62

Freialdenhoven

2.56

Germania Teveren

1.62

Freialdenhoven creates 58% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 15 away

1.45

creates per match

1.67

1.57

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Freialdenhoven

1.45

Germania Teveren

1.67

allows per match

Freialdenhoven

1.57

Germania Teveren

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freialdenhoven+0.00on par

Germania Teveren+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freialdenhoven ↓

Germania Teveren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Freialdenhoven or draw

76%

Freialdenhoven or Germania Teveren

81%

Draw or Germania Teveren

43%

Winning margin

Freialdenhoven wins by 2+

37%

Germania Teveren wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Freialdenhoven 1+ goals

92%

Freialdenhoven 2+ goals

72%

Freialdenhoven 3+ goals

46%

Germania Teveren 1+ goals

80%

Germania Teveren 2+ goals

48%

Germania Teveren 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)

71%

Germania Teveren (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freialdenhoven at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

Germania Teveren away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freialdenhoven attack 1.45 + Germania Teveren defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.56

Germania Teveren attack 1.67 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Freialdenhoven scores more

57%

level

19%

Germania Teveren scores more

24%

Freialdenhoven at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Freialdenhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff