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Freialdenhoven vs Fortuna Köln II — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Freialdenhoven
Freialdenhoven
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Fortuna Köln II
Fortuna Köln II
9/4/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 3Sportanlage Ederener Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Freialdenhoven41%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Köln II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freialdenhoven
1.67
Fortuna Köln II
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 79 away

creates per match

Freialdenhoven
1.45
Fortuna Köln II
1.54

allows per match

Freialdenhoven
1.57
Fortuna Köln II
1.89

finishing

Freialdenhoven+0.00on par
Fortuna Köln II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freialdenhoven ↓

Fortuna Köln II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Freialdenhoven or draw
64%
Freialdenhoven or Fortuna Köln II
77%
Draw or Fortuna Köln II
59%

Winning margin

Freialdenhoven wins by 2+
21%
Fortuna Köln II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Freialdenhoven 1+ goals
81%
Freialdenhoven 2+ goals
50%
Freialdenhoven 3+ goals
23%
Fortuna Köln II 1+ goals
79%
Fortuna Köln II 2+ goals
46%
Fortuna Köln II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)
53%
Fortuna Köln II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freialdenhoven at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

Fortuna Köln II away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freialdenhoven attack 1.45 + Fortuna Köln II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.67

Fortuna Köln II attack 1.54 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Freialdenhoven scores more
41%
level
23%
Fortuna Köln II scores more
36%

Freialdenhoven at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Freialdenhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Freialdenhoven vs Fortuna Köln II

Fortuna Köln II beat Freialdenhoven 3-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Sportanlage Ederener Straße in Aldenhoven.