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Freialdenhoven vs Eilendorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Freialdenhoven
Freialdenhoven
FT
1 – 0
Eilendorf
Eilendorf
9/5/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 5Sportanlage Ederener Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Freialdenhoven51%
×Draw23%
Eilendorf26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freialdenhoven
1.83
Eilendorf
1.24

Freialdenhoven creates 48% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 20 away

creates per match

Freialdenhoven
1.45
Eilendorf
0.90

allows per match

Freialdenhoven
1.57
Eilendorf
2.20

finishing

Freialdenhoven+0.00on par
Eilendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freialdenhoven ↓

Eilendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Freialdenhoven or draw
74%
Freialdenhoven or Eilendorf
77%
Draw or Eilendorf
49%

Winning margin

Freialdenhoven wins by 2+
28%
Eilendorf wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Freialdenhoven 1+ goals
84%
Freialdenhoven 2+ goals
54%
Freialdenhoven 3+ goals
28%
Eilendorf 1+ goals
71%
Eilendorf 2+ goals
35%
Eilendorf 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)
66%
Eilendorf (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freialdenhoven at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

Eilendorf away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freialdenhoven attack 1.45 + Eilendorf defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.83

Eilendorf attack 0.90 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Freialdenhoven scores more
51%
level
23%
Eilendorf scores more
26%

Freialdenhoven at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Freialdenhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Freialdenhoven 1–0 Eilendorf

Freialdenhoven beat Eilendorf 1-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Sportanlage Ederener Straße in Aldenhoven.