Freialdenhoven 1–1 BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

Freialdenhoven

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

4/24/2022

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 27Sportanlage Ederener Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Freialdenhoven42%

×Draw23%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FreialdenhovenExpected goals in this matchBCV Glesch / Paffendorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.54

Freialdenhoven

1.73

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

1.54

Freialdenhoven creates 12% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 44 away

1.45

creates per match

1.50

1.57

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Freialdenhoven

1.45

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

1.50

allows per match

Freialdenhoven

1.57

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freialdenhoven+0.00on par

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freialdenhoven ↓

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Freialdenhoven or draw

66%

Freialdenhoven or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

77%

Draw or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

58%

Winning margin

Freialdenhoven wins by 2+

22%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Freialdenhoven 1+ goals

82%

Freialdenhoven 2+ goals

52%

Freialdenhoven 3+ goals

25%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 1+ goals

79%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 2+ goals

45%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)

55%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freialdenhoven at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freialdenhoven attack 1.45 + BCV Glesch / Paffendorf defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf attack 1.50 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Freialdenhoven scores more

42%

level

23%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf scores more

34%

Freialdenhoven at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Freialdenhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff