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Freeport vs Small Town — LFA First Division 2020

Freeport
Freeport
FT
1 – 2
Small Town
Small Town
2/14/2021LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 9Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Freeport55%
×Draw20%
Small Town25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freeport
2.25
Small Town
1.46

Freeport creates 54% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 11 away

creates per match

Freeport
1.50
Small Town
1.09

allows per match

Freeport
1.82
Small Town
3.00

finishing

Freeport+0.00on par
Small Town+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freeport ↓

Small Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Freeport or draw
75%
Freeport or Small Town
80%
Draw or Small Town
45%

Winning margin

Freeport wins by 2+
34%
Small Town wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Freeport 1+ goals
89%
Freeport 2+ goals
65%
Freeport 3+ goals
39%
Small Town 1+ goals
77%
Small Town 2+ goals
43%
Small Town 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Freeport (draw refunded)
69%
Small Town (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freeport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

Small Town away — creates 1.09, concedes 3.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freeport attack 1.50 + Small Town defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Small Town attack 1.09 + Freeport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Freeport scores more
55%
level
20%
Small Town scores more
25%

Freeport at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Freeport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Freeport 1–2 Small Town

Small Town beat Freeport 2-1 in LFA First Division on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex in Monrovia.