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Freeport vs Nimba United — LFA First Division 2020

Freeport
Freeport
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Nimba United
Nimba United
2/27/2022LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 15TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Freeport45%
×Draw23%
Nimba United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freeport
1.75
Nimba United
1.44

Freeport creates 22% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 33 away

creates per match

Freeport
1.50
Nimba United
1.06

allows per match

Freeport
1.82
Nimba United
2.00

finishing

Freeport+0.00on par
Nimba United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freeport ↓

Nimba United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Freeport or draw
68%
Freeport or Nimba United
77%
Draw or Nimba United
55%

Winning margin

Freeport wins by 2+
24%
Nimba United wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Freeport 1+ goals
83%
Freeport 2+ goals
52%
Freeport 3+ goals
25%
Nimba United 1+ goals
76%
Nimba United 2+ goals
42%
Nimba United 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Freeport (draw refunded)
59%
Nimba United (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freeport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

Nimba United away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.00 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freeport attack 1.50 + Nimba United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Nimba United attack 1.06 + Freeport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Freeport scores more
45%
level
23%
Nimba United scores more
32%

Freeport at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Freeport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Freeport vs Nimba United

Freeport beat Nimba United 3-1 in LFA First Division on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at TUSA Sport Field in Monrovia.