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Freeport vs Nimba Kwado — LFA First Division 2020

Freeport
Freeport
FT
1 – 2
Nimba Kwado
Nimba Kwado
2/7/2021LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 8Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Freeport36%
×Draw25%
Nimba Kwado40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freeport
1.40
Nimba Kwado
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 50 away

creates per match

Freeport
1.50
Nimba Kwado
1.16

allows per match

Freeport
1.82
Nimba Kwado
1.30

finishing

Freeport+0.00on par
Nimba Kwado+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freeport ↓

Nimba Kwado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Freeport or draw
60%
Freeport or Nimba Kwado
75%
Draw or Nimba Kwado
64%

Winning margin

Freeport wins by 2+
16%
Nimba Kwado wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Freeport 1+ goals
75%
Freeport 2+ goals
41%
Freeport 3+ goals
17%
Nimba Kwado 1+ goals
77%
Nimba Kwado 2+ goals
44%
Nimba Kwado 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Freeport (draw refunded)
47%
Nimba Kwado (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freeport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

Nimba Kwado away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freeport attack 1.50 + Nimba Kwado defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Nimba Kwado attack 1.16 + Freeport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Freeport scores more
36%
level
25%
Nimba Kwado scores more
40%

Nimba Kwado at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nimba Kwado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Freeport 1–2 Nimba Kwado

Nimba Kwado beat Freeport 2-1 in LFA First Division on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium in Kakata.