Freeport 2–2 Nimba FC: Result & Stats

Freeport

FT

2 – 2

Nimba FC

11/4/2020

LFA First Division · Round 1George Weah Technical Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Freeport48%

×Draw22%

Nimba FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FreeportExpected goals in this matchNimba FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.46

Freeport

1.90

Nimba FC

1.46

Freeport creates 30% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 10 away

1.50

creates per match

1.10

1.82

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Freeport

1.50

Nimba FC

1.10

allows per match

Freeport

1.82

Nimba FC

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freeport+0.00on par

Nimba FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freeport ↓

Nimba FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Freeport or draw

70%

Freeport or Nimba FC

78%

Draw or Nimba FC

52%

Winning margin

Freeport wins by 2+

27%

Nimba FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Freeport 1+ goals

85%

Freeport 2+ goals

56%

Freeport 3+ goals

29%

Nimba FC 1+ goals

77%

Nimba FC 2+ goals

43%

Nimba FC 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Freeport (draw refunded)

62%

Nimba FC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freeport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

Nimba FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freeport attack 1.50 + Nimba FC defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.90

Nimba FC attack 1.10 + Freeport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Freeport scores more

48%

level

22%

Nimba FC scores more

30%

Freeport at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Freeport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff