Freeport 2–2 Downtown: Result & Stats

Freeport

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Downtown

5/3/2026

LFA First Division · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Freeport40%

×Draw23%

Downtown37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FreeportExpected goals in this matchDowntown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.63

Freeport

1.71

Downtown

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 14 away

1.50

creates per match

1.43

1.82

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Freeport

1.50

Downtown

1.43

allows per match

Freeport

1.82

Downtown

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freeport+0.00on par

Downtown+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freeport ↓

Downtown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Freeport or draw

63%

Freeport or Downtown

77%

Draw or Downtown

60%

Winning margin

Freeport wins by 2+

21%

Downtown wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Freeport 1+ goals

82%

Freeport 2+ goals

51%

Freeport 3+ goals

24%

Downtown 1+ goals

80%

Downtown 2+ goals

48%

Downtown 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Freeport (draw refunded)

52%

Downtown (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freeport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

Downtown away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freeport attack 1.50 + Downtown defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.71

Downtown attack 1.43 + Freeport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Freeport scores more

40%

level

23%

Downtown scores more

37%

Freeport at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Freeport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff