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Freeport vs BEA Mountain — LFA First Division 2020

Freeport
Freeport
FT
2 – 3
BEA Mountain
BEA Mountain
10/20/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 5TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Freeport28%
×Draw23%
BEA Mountain50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freeport
1.31
BEA Mountain
1.83

BEA Mountain creates 40% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 74 away

creates per match

Freeport
1.50
BEA Mountain
1.84

allows per match

Freeport
1.82
BEA Mountain
1.11

finishing

Freeport+0.00on par
BEA Mountain+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freeport ↓

BEA Mountain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Freeport or draw
50%
Freeport or BEA Mountain
77%
Draw or BEA Mountain
72%

Winning margin

Freeport wins by 2+
12%
BEA Mountain wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Freeport 1+ goals
73%
Freeport 2+ goals
38%
Freeport 3+ goals
14%
BEA Mountain 1+ goals
84%
BEA Mountain 2+ goals
54%
BEA Mountain 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Freeport (draw refunded)
36%
BEA Mountain (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freeport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

BEA Mountain away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.11 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freeport attack 1.50 + BEA Mountain defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

BEA Mountain attack 1.84 + Freeport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Freeport scores more
28%
level
23%
BEA Mountain scores more
50%

BEA Mountain at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "BEA Mountain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Freeport vs BEA Mountain

BEA Mountain beat Freeport 3-2 in LFA First Division on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at TUSA Sport Field in Monrovia.