Fredrikstad vs Tromso: Preview & Prediction

Fredrikstad

Preview

15:00

Tromso

10/11/2026

Eliteserien · Round 23Fredrikstad Stadion

Big match

45%

Fredrikstad

model favours

45%24%31%

Fredrikstad score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

56%

over 2.5 goals

59%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Fredrikstad45%

×Draw24%

Tromso31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.31

Fredrikstad

1.62

Tromso

1.31

Fredrikstad creates 24% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 31 away

1.60

creates per match

1.29

1.33

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Fredrikstad

1.60

Tromso

1.29

allows per match

Fredrikstad

1.33

Tromso

1.64

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less

Tromso+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

69%

Fredrikstad or Tromso

76%

Draw or Tromso

55%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

23%

Tromso wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

80%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

48%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

22%

Tromso 1+ goals

73%

Tromso 2+ goals

38%

Tromso 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

59%

Tromso (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.64 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Tromso defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.62

Tromso attack 1.29 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

45%

level

24%

Tromso scores more

31%

Fredrikstad at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

71% of Fredrikstad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Fredrikstad win just 17% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)
Fredrikstad sit 11, Tromso 1 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.