Fredrikstad 5–2 Sogndal: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Sogndal

O. Øby 90+7'

N. Solberg 80', 54'

L. Lima 25'

R. Alba 14'

A. Nord 77'

S. Ørjasæter 42'

8/27/2022

1. Division · Round 22Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Fredrikstad48%

×Draw24%

Sogndal28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchSogndal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.27

Fredrikstad

1.73

Sogndal

1.27

Fredrikstad creates 36% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 114 away

1.89

creates per match

1.33

1.20

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Fredrikstad

1.89

Sogndal

1.33

allows per match

Fredrikstad

1.20

Sogndal

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fredrikstad+0.00on par

Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Sogndal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

72%

Fredrikstad or Sogndal

76%

Draw or Sogndal

52%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

26%

Sogndal wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

82%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

52%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

25%

Sogndal 1+ goals

72%

Sogndal 2+ goals

36%

Sogndal 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

63%

Sogndal (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.89 + Sogndal defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sogndal attack 1.33 + Fredrikstad defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

48%

level

24%

Sogndal scores more

28%

Fredrikstad at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

14'

25'

42'

42'

46'

54'

62'

62'

O. Okeke← N. Williams

62'

62'

72'

74'

75'

E. Lereng← P. Slørdahl

76'

77'

80'

83'

86'

90+7'

Fredrikstad

Sogndal

1

Fij

13

Flo

26

Spa

22

▼

Slørdahl

7

▼

8

11

19

27

⚽

Ørjasæter

99

Díaz

28

▼

1

4

18

3

21

7

▼

Drage

14

▼

Lindström

20

Åsheim

11

⚽

▼

Alba

24

▼

Williams

29

⚽

▼

Lima

Manager: B. Johansen

46'▲N. Solberg←▼L. Lima

62'▲O. Øby←▼J. Lindström

62'▲O. Okeke←▼N. Williams

74'▲M. Maden←▼T. Drage

83'▲I. Kingsley←▼R. Alba

Fredrikstad substitutes

10Solberg19Øby22Okeke23Maden15Kingsley2Hansen16Wenneberg17Johansen25Langbråten

Manager: T. Flo

62'▲E. Kupen←▼E. Grønner

62'▲A. Nord←▼J. Jónsson

75'▲E. Lereng←▼P. Slørdahl

Sogndal substitutes

9Kupen23Nord16Lereng5Gunnarsson21Johnsen29Steinset30Flataker

1. Division: Fredrikstad 5–2 Sogndal

Fredrikstad beat Sogndal 5-2 in 1. Division on August 27, 2022.

Goals: R. Alba (14'), L. Lima (25'), S. Ørjasæter (42'), N. Solberg (54', 80'), A. Nord (77'), O. Øby (90+7').

The match was played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion in Fredrikstad.

Fredrikstad vs Sogndal — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Fredrikstad 5–2 Sogndal