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Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord — Eliteserien 2026

Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sandefjord
Sandefjord
M. Bjørlo 30'
4/28/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 5Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Fredrikstad46%
×Draw24%
Sandefjord30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fredrikstad
1.71
Sandefjord
1.35

Fredrikstad creates 27% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 36 away

creates per match

Fredrikstad
1.60
Sandefjord
1.37

allows per match

Fredrikstad
1.33
Sandefjord
1.82

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less
Sandefjord+0.19scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Sandefjord →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw
70%
Fredrikstad or Sandefjord
76%
Draw or Sandefjord
54%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+
24%
Sandefjord wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals
82%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
51%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
24%
Sandefjord 1+ goals
74%
Sandefjord 2+ goals
39%
Sandefjord 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
60%
Sandefjord (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Sandefjord away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.82 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Sandefjord defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.71

Sandefjord attack 1.37 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fredrikstad scores more
46%
level
24%
Sandefjord scores more
30%

Fredrikstad at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. BjørloFredrikstadFredrikstad · M
8.3

Match Events

30'
M. Bjørlo↳ S. Sørløkk
36'
Simon Amin
57'
Sigurd Kvile
59'
J. Dunsby← B. Mvuka
71'
B. Hendriksson← J. Kjær
71'
S. Rafn← S. Molde
83'
V. Egeli← E. Marković
83'
S. Mørk← Simon Amin
83'
A. Damnjanovic Nilsson← L. Mettler
89'
E. Segberg← O. Aga
89'
M. Nielsen← B. Skaret

Possession

37%Fredrikstad

Shots

11Fredrikstad

Pass accuracy

47%Fredrikstad

Statistics

FredrikstadSandefjord
Overview
37%Possession63%
11Total Shots12
1.17Expected Goals (xG)1.59
5Corners6
6Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots12
5On Target6
2Off Target4
4Blocked2
8Inside Box8
3Outside Box4
Passing
37%Possession63%
343Total Passes584
251Accurate Passes474
73%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Eliteserien: Fredrikstad 1–0 Sandefjord

Fredrikstad beat Sandefjord 1-0 in Eliteserien on April 28, 2024.

Goals: M. Bjørlo (30').

Sandefjord controlled possession (63%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion in Fredrikstad.