Fredrikstad 1–0 Ljungskile SK: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad

FT

1 – 0

Ljungskile SK

2/28/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Fredrikstad48%

×Draw25%

Ljungskile SK27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchLjungskile SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.10

Fredrikstad

1.57

Ljungskile SK

1.10

Fredrikstad creates 43% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

2.14

creates per match

1.14

1.07

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Fredrikstad

2.14

Ljungskile SK

1.14

allows per match

Fredrikstad

1.07

Ljungskile SK

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fredrikstad+0.00on par

Ljungskile SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Ljungskile SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

73%

Fredrikstad or Ljungskile SK

75%

Draw or Ljungskile SK

52%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

25%

Ljungskile SK wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

79%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

46%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

21%

Ljungskile SK 1+ goals

67%

Ljungskile SK 2+ goals

30%

Ljungskile SK 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

64%

Ljungskile SK (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Ljungskile SK away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 2.14 + Ljungskile SK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ljungskile SK attack 1.14 + Fredrikstad defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

48%

level

25%

Ljungskile SK scores more

27%

Fredrikstad at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff