Fredrikstad 0–0 IF Elfsborg: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

IF Elfsborg

6/28/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fredrikstad58%

×Draw24%

IF Elfsborg18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchIF Elfsborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.79

Fredrikstad

1.66

IF Elfsborg

0.79

Fredrikstad creates 110% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

2.14

creates per match

0.50

1.07

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Fredrikstad

2.14

IF Elfsborg

0.50

allows per match

Fredrikstad

1.07

IF Elfsborg

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fredrikstad+0.00on par

IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

IF Elfsborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

82%

Fredrikstad or IF Elfsborg

76%

Draw or IF Elfsborg

42%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

32%

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

81%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

49%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

23%

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals

55%

IF Elfsborg 2+ goals

19%

IF Elfsborg 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

77%

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 2.14 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.66

IF Elfsborg attack 0.50 + Fredrikstad defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

58%

level

24%

IF Elfsborg scores more

18%

Fredrikstad at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Fredrikstad

IF

31

6

2

4

23

18

10

19

29

25

21

77

4

7

9

12

13

14

16

19

20

23

Manager: Andreas Hagen

Fredrikstad substitutes

1Ovretveit3AndresenBotchwayHansen18Norbye35Nordrum26Nysveen2Okpaleke5Rafn21SheinTheodorsen83Wesseh

Manager: Bjorn Hamberg

IF Elfsborg substitutes

1Erlandsson8Holmen28Aronsson27Okeke16Hellemaa9Zeneli20Rapp24Ihler22Krasniqi11Silverholt