Fredrikstad 3–2 Brattvåg: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Brattvåg

T. Lopez Borgersen 57'

H. Johansen 52'

R. Alba 46'

A. Kalermo 42'

A. Jonassen 4'

9/22/2019

2. Division - Group 1 · Round 21Nye Fredrikstad Stadion (Fredrikstad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Fredrikstad61%

×Draw19%

Brattvåg20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchBrattvåg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.32

Fredrikstad

2.41

Brattvåg

1.32

Fredrikstad creates 83% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

2.89

creates per match

1.70

0.95

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Fredrikstad

2.89

Brattvåg

1.70

allows per match

Fredrikstad

0.95

Brattvåg

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fredrikstad+0.00on par

Brattvåg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Brattvåg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

80%

Fredrikstad or Brattvåg

81%

Draw or Brattvåg

39%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

39%

Brattvåg wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

91%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

69%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

43%

Brattvåg 1+ goals

73%

Brattvåg 2+ goals

38%

Brattvåg 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

75%

Brattvåg (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Brattvåg away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.92 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 2.89 + Brattvåg defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.41

Brattvåg attack 1.70 + Fredrikstad defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

61%

level

19%

Brattvåg scores more

20%

Fredrikstad at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

A. Jonassen

25'

A. Barkarson← L. Begby

42'

46'

46'

52'

55'

57'

75'

E. Solnørdal← A. Jonassen

79'

N. Solberg← T. Drage

87'

E. Mordal← A. Kalermo

Fredrikstad

Brattvåg

1

Stankovic

15

⚽

▼

3

13

10

23

▼

4

22

9

7

11

⚽

▼

Jonassen

1

Jensen

20

Åsheim

18

▼

Begby

5

Aukland

28

⚽

Borgersen

35

▼

Drage

21

Hagen

23

Hagen

9

▼

Nilsen

22

⚽

Johansen

11

Nieves

Manager: B. Johansen

25'▲A. Barkarson←▼L. Begby

46'▲R. Alba←▼T. Nilsen

79'▲N. Solberg←▼T. Drage

Fredrikstad substitutes

19Barkarson15Alba14Solberg13Karstensen16Ali24Koko27Borgersen

Manager: R. Skovdahl

55'▲H. Leine←▼N. Rekdal

75'▲E. Solnørdal←▼A. Jonassen

87'▲E. Mordal←▼A. Kalermo

Brattvåg substitutes

18Leine19Solnørdal2Mordal12Neydson21Rogne5Aarsund