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Fredrikstad vs Aalesund — Eliteserien 2026

Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
Preview
16:00
Aalesund
Aalesund
11/29/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 28Fredrikstad Stadion
54%
Fredrikstad
model favours
54%22%24%

Fredrikstad score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Fredrikstad54%
×Draw22%
Aalesund24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fredrikstad
2.03
Aalesund
1.29

Fredrikstad creates 57% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 11 away

creates per match

Fredrikstad
1.60
Aalesund
1.26

allows per match

Fredrikstad
1.33
Aalesund
2.46

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less
Aalesund-0.17scores less

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Aalesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw
76%
Fredrikstad or Aalesund
78%
Draw or Aalesund
46%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+
32%
Aalesund wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals
87%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
60%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
33%
Aalesund 1+ goals
72%
Aalesund 2+ goals
37%
Aalesund 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
69%
Aalesund (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.46 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Aalesund defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.03

Aalesund attack 1.26 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fredrikstad scores more
54%
level
22%
Aalesund scores more
24%

Fredrikstad at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Aalesund score first in only 27% of matches
  • Aalesund have scored in 7 games running
  • 71% of Fredrikstad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 73% of Aalesund’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 4 meetings
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 4.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Fredrikstad
Balanced
Aalesund
Direct / counter-attacking
45%Possession44%
75%Pass accuracy75%
11.2ShotsBiggest gap12.7
1.36xG1.49
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FredrikstadAalesund

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
0
Aalesund
Avg goals: 4.5BTTS: 100%
3–23–22–22–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Fredrikstad
LLLDD
Aalesund
LDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fredrikstad host Aalesund

November 29, 2026: Fredrikstad take on Aalesund in Eliteserien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Fredrikstad host Aalesund at Fredrikstad Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.