Aalesund 2–3 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats

Aalesund

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Fredrikstad

K. Lonebu 49'

H. Melland 31'

E. Granaas 88'

R. R. Shein 70'

S. Leach 44'

4/7/2026

Eliteserien · Round 3Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Aalesund43%

×Draw24%

Fredrikstad34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalesundExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.44

Aalesund

1.65

Fredrikstad

1.44

Aalesund creates 15% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 33 away

1.68

creates per match

1.13

1.75

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Aalesund

1.68

Fredrikstad

1.13

allows per match

Aalesund

1.75

Fredrikstad

1.61

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Aalesund-0.41scores less

Fredrikstad-0.04on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw

66%

Aalesund or Fredrikstad

76%

Draw or Fredrikstad

57%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+

22%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals

81%

Aalesund 2+ goals

49%

Aalesund 3+ goals

23%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

76%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

42%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)

56%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.75 · 11 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 1.68 + Fredrikstad defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.65

Fredrikstad attack 1.13 + Aalesund defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aalesund scores more

43%

level

24%

Fredrikstad scores more

34%

Aalesund at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aalesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

S. Leach

Fredrikstad · M

8.0

Match Events

31'

H. Melland↳ M. Christensen

38'

Davíð Snær Jóhannsson

38'

S. Leach← F. Holme

43'

Philip Sandvik Aukland

44'

S. Leach

49'

K. Lonebu↳ H. Melland

59'

F. Ghebreyohannes← S. Sorlokk

59'

S. Laghzaoui← H. Skogvold

64'

K. Nesso← U. Charles

64'

H. Hammer← M. Christensen

66'

Aleksander Kjelsen

70'

R. R. Shein↳ S. Laghzaoui

76'

E. Osenbroch← H. Melland

76'

I. Djantou← D. Johannsson

85'

J. Norbye← S. Rafn

85'

E. Granaas← R. R. Shein

88'

E. Granaas↳ O. Ohlenschlaeger

89'

E. Myrlid← U. Syversen

90+3'

Hakon Butli Hammer

90+6'

Eirik Granaas

90+1'

Martin Borsheim

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AalesundFredrikstad

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots8

1.00Expected Goals (xG)0.63

3Corners5

18Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots8

6On Target5

5Off Target0

4Blocked3

11Inside Box4

4Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

433Total Passes458

326Accurate Passes359

75%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

-0.60Goals Prevented-0.60

Discipline

18Fouls14

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4