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Fredrikstad II vs Start II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Fredrikstad II
Fredrikstad II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Start II
Start II
9/11/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 19Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Fredrikstad II63%
×Draw19%
Start II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fredrikstad II
2.45
Start II
1.28

Fredrikstad II creates 91% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Fredrikstad II
2.04
Start II
1.38

allows per match

Fredrikstad II
1.19
Start II
2.85

finishing

Fredrikstad II+0.00on par
Start II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad II ↓

Start II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Fredrikstad II or draw
81%
Fredrikstad II or Start II
81%
Draw or Start II
37%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad II wins by 2+
41%
Start II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fredrikstad II 1+ goals
91%
Fredrikstad II 2+ goals
70%
Fredrikstad II 3+ goals
44%
Start II 1+ goals
72%
Start II 2+ goals
37%
Start II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)
77%
Start II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad II at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Start II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad II attack 2.04 + Start II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.45

Start II attack 1.38 + Fredrikstad II defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Fredrikstad II scores more
63%
level
19%
Start II scores more
19%

Fredrikstad II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Fredrikstad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Fredrikstad II 2–0 Start II

Fredrikstad II beat Start II 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on September 11, 2023.

The match was played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion in Fredrikstad.