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Fredrikstad II vs Mandalskameratene — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Fredrikstad II
Fredrikstad II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Mandalskameratene
Mandalskameratene
9/30/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 22Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Fredrikstad II48%
×Draw21%
Mandalskameratene31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fredrikstad II
2.06
Mandalskameratene
1.64

Fredrikstad II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

creates per match

Fredrikstad II
2.04
Mandalskameratene
2.09

allows per match

Fredrikstad II
1.19
Mandalskameratene
2.09

finishing

Fredrikstad II+0.00on par
Mandalskameratene+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad II ↓

Mandalskameratene →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Fredrikstad II or draw
69%
Fredrikstad II or Mandalskameratene
79%
Draw or Mandalskameratene
52%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad II wins by 2+
27%
Mandalskameratene wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fredrikstad II 1+ goals
87%
Fredrikstad II 2+ goals
61%
Fredrikstad II 3+ goals
34%
Mandalskameratene 1+ goals
81%
Mandalskameratene 2+ goals
49%
Mandalskameratene 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)
60%
Mandalskameratene (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad II at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Mandalskameratene away — creates 2.09, concedes 2.09 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad II attack 2.04 + Mandalskameratene defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.06

Mandalskameratene attack 2.09 + Fredrikstad II defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fredrikstad II scores more
48%
level
21%
Mandalskameratene scores more
31%

Fredrikstad II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fredrikstad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fredrikstad II vs Mandalskameratene

Mandalskameratene beat Fredrikstad II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion in Fredrikstad.