Fredrikstad II 3–1 Lokomotiv Oslo: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lokomotiv Oslo

7/28/2025

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 13Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Fredrikstad II39%

×Draw22%

Lokomotiv Oslo40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fredrikstad IIExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Oslo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.87

Fredrikstad II

1.85

Lokomotiv Oslo

1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 19 away

1.92

creates per match

1.74

2.00

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Fredrikstad II

1.92

Lokomotiv Oslo

1.74

allows per match

Fredrikstad II

2.00

Lokomotiv Oslo

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad II ↓

Lokomotiv Oslo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Fredrikstad II or draw

60%

Fredrikstad II or Lokomotiv Oslo

78%

Draw or Lokomotiv Oslo

61%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad II wins by 2+

20%

Lokomotiv Oslo wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Fredrikstad II 1+ goals

84%

Fredrikstad II 2+ goals

55%

Fredrikstad II 3+ goals

28%

Lokomotiv Oslo 1+ goals

85%

Lokomotiv Oslo 2+ goals

56%

Lokomotiv Oslo 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)

49%

Lokomotiv Oslo (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.00 · 26 matches

Lokomotiv Oslo away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad II attack 1.92 + Lokomotiv Oslo defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.85

Lokomotiv Oslo attack 1.74 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fredrikstad II scores more

39%

level

22%

Lokomotiv Oslo scores more

40%

Lokomotiv Oslo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lokomotiv Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff