Fredrikstad II 0–3 Fløya: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad II

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Fløya

8/3/2024

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 15Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Fredrikstad II34%

×Draw21%

Fløya45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fredrikstad IIExpected goals in this matchFløya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.00

Fredrikstad II

1.73

Fløya

2.00

Fløya creates 16% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 39 away

1.92

creates per match

2.00

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Fredrikstad II

1.92

Fløya

2.00

allows per match

Fredrikstad II

2.00

Fløya

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Fløya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad II ↓

Fløya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Fredrikstad II or draw

55%

Fredrikstad II or Fløya

79%

Draw or Fløya

66%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad II wins by 2+

17%

Fløya wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Fredrikstad II 1+ goals

82%

Fredrikstad II 2+ goals

52%

Fredrikstad II 3+ goals

25%

Fløya 1+ goals

86%

Fløya 2+ goals

59%

Fløya 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)

43%

Fløya (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.00 · 26 matches

Fløya away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.54 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad II attack 1.92 + Fløya defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.73

Fløya attack 2.00 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fredrikstad II scores more

34%

level

21%

Fløya scores more

45%

Fløya at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fløya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff