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Fredrikstad II vs Åssiden IF — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Fredrikstad II
Fredrikstad II
CANC
11:00
Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
10/31/20203. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 13Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fredrikstad II76%
×Draw13%
Åssiden IF12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fredrikstad II
3.58
Åssiden IF
1.42

Fredrikstad II creates 152% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Fredrikstad II
3.33
Åssiden IF
1.17

allows per match

Fredrikstad II
1.67
Åssiden IF
3.83

finishing

Fredrikstad II+0.00on par
Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad II ↓

Åssiden IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Fredrikstad II or draw
88%
Fredrikstad II or Åssiden IF
87%
Draw or Åssiden IF
24%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad II wins by 2+
58%
Åssiden IF wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Fredrikstad II 1+ goals
97%
Fredrikstad II 2+ goals
86%
Fredrikstad II 3+ goals
67%
Åssiden IF 1+ goals
76%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
41%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)
87%
Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad II at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Åssiden IF away — creates 1.17, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad II attack 3.33 + Åssiden IF defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 3.58

Åssiden IF attack 1.17 + Fredrikstad II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Fredrikstad II scores more
76%
level
13%
Åssiden IF scores more
12%

Fredrikstad II at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Fredrikstad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fredrikstad II vs Åssiden IF — Match Preview

Fredrikstad II face Åssiden IF on October 31, 2020 in this 3. Division - Girone 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Fredrikstad II host Åssiden IF at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.