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Frechen vs VfL Vichttal — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Frechen
Frechen
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
VfL Vichttal
VfL Vichttal
4/19/2026Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 23Kunstrasenplatz Kurt-Bornhoff-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Frechen46%
×Draw21%
VfL Vichttal33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frechen
2.06
VfL Vichttal
1.74

Frechen creates 18% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 79 away

creates per match

Frechen
2.34
VfL Vichttal
1.92

allows per match

Frechen
1.56
VfL Vichttal
1.78

finishing

Frechen+0.00on par
VfL Vichttal+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frechen ↓

VfL Vichttal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Frechen or draw
67%
Frechen or VfL Vichttal
79%
Draw or VfL Vichttal
54%

Winning margin

Frechen wins by 2+
26%
VfL Vichttal wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Frechen 1+ goals
87%
Frechen 2+ goals
61%
Frechen 3+ goals
34%
VfL Vichttal 1+ goals
82%
VfL Vichttal 2+ goals
52%
VfL Vichttal 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Frechen (draw refunded)
58%
VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frechen at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.56 · 80 matches

VfL Vichttal away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.78 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frechen attack 2.34 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.06

VfL Vichttal attack 1.92 + Frechen defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Frechen scores more
46%
level
21%
VfL Vichttal scores more
33%

Frechen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Frechen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Frechen 3–2 VfL Vichttal

Frechen beat VfL Vichttal 3-2 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Kurt-Bornhoff-Sportpark in Frechen.