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Frechen vs Hürth — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Frechen
Frechen
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Hürth
Hürth
12/1/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 14Kunstrasenplatz Kurt-Bornhoff-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Frechen53%
×Draw21%
Hürth26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frechen
2.18
Hürth
1.48

Frechen creates 47% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 66 away

creates per match

Frechen
2.34
Hürth
1.41

allows per match

Frechen
1.56
Hürth
2.03

finishing

Frechen+0.00on par
Hürth+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frechen ↓

Hürth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Frechen or draw
74%
Frechen or Hürth
79%
Draw or Hürth
47%

Winning margin

Frechen wins by 2+
32%
Hürth wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Frechen 1+ goals
89%
Frechen 2+ goals
64%
Frechen 3+ goals
37%
Hürth 1+ goals
77%
Hürth 2+ goals
43%
Hürth 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Frechen (draw refunded)
67%
Hürth (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frechen at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.56 · 80 matches

Hürth away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frechen attack 2.34 + Hürth defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.18

Hürth attack 1.41 + Frechen defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Frechen scores more
53%
level
21%
Hürth scores more
26%

Frechen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Frechen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frechen vs Hürth

Frechen and Hürth drew 3-3 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Kurt-Bornhoff-Sportpark in Frechen.