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Frechen vs Friesdorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Frechen
Frechen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Friesdorf
Friesdorf
2/24/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 19Kunstrasenplatz Kurt-Bornhoff-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Frechen58%
×Draw19%
Friesdorf22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frechen
2.42
Friesdorf
1.46

Frechen creates 66% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 36 away

creates per match

Frechen
2.34
Friesdorf
1.36

allows per match

Frechen
1.56
Friesdorf
2.50

finishing

Frechen+0.00on par
Friesdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frechen ↓

Friesdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Frechen or draw
78%
Frechen or Friesdorf
81%
Draw or Friesdorf
42%

Winning margin

Frechen wins by 2+
37%
Friesdorf wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Frechen 1+ goals
91%
Frechen 2+ goals
69%
Frechen 3+ goals
43%
Friesdorf 1+ goals
77%
Friesdorf 2+ goals
43%
Friesdorf 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Frechen (draw refunded)
72%
Friesdorf (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frechen at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.56 · 80 matches

Friesdorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frechen attack 2.34 + Friesdorf defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.42

Friesdorf attack 1.36 + Frechen defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Frechen scores more
58%
level
19%
Friesdorf scores more
22%

Frechen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Frechen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Frechen 0–1 Friesdorf

Friesdorf beat Frechen 1-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on February 24, 2022.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Kurt-Bornhoff-Sportpark in Frechen.