Frechen 0–3 Eintracht Hohkeppel: Result & Stats

Frechen

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Eintracht Hohkeppel

5/5/2024

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 28Kunstrasenplatz Kurt-Bornhoff-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Frechen42%

×Draw22%

Eintracht Hohkeppel36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrechenExpected goals in this matchEintracht Hohkeppel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.73

Frechen

1.87

Eintracht Hohkeppel

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 43 away

2.34

creates per match

1.91

1.56

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Frechen

2.34

Eintracht Hohkeppel

1.91

allows per match

Frechen

1.56

Eintracht Hohkeppel

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frechen+0.00on par

Eintracht Hohkeppel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frechen ↓

Eintracht Hohkeppel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Frechen or draw

64%

Frechen or Eintracht Hohkeppel

78%

Draw or Eintracht Hohkeppel

58%

Winning margin

Frechen wins by 2+

22%

Eintracht Hohkeppel wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Frechen 1+ goals

85%

Frechen 2+ goals

56%

Frechen 3+ goals

29%

Eintracht Hohkeppel 1+ goals

82%

Eintracht Hohkeppel 2+ goals

52%

Eintracht Hohkeppel 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Frechen (draw refunded)

54%

Eintracht Hohkeppel (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frechen at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.56 · 80 matches

Eintracht Hohkeppel away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frechen attack 2.34 + Eintracht Hohkeppel defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.87

Eintracht Hohkeppel attack 1.91 + Frechen defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Frechen scores more

42%

level

22%

Eintracht Hohkeppel scores more

36%

Frechen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Frechen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff