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Frauental vs Voitsberg — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Frauental
Frauental
CANC
17:00
Voitsberg
Voitsberg
5/1/2021Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 23Sportplatz Sv Frauental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Frauental21%
×Draw21%
Voitsberg58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frauental
1.16
Voitsberg
2.06

Voitsberg creates 78% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 42 away

creates per match

Frauental
1.22
Voitsberg
2.17

allows per match

Frauental
1.96
Voitsberg
1.10

finishing

Frauental+0.00on par
Voitsberg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frauental ↓

Voitsberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Frauental or draw
42%
Frauental or Voitsberg
79%
Draw or Voitsberg
79%

Winning margin

Frauental wins by 2+
8%
Voitsberg wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Frauental 1+ goals
69%
Frauental 2+ goals
32%
Frauental 3+ goals
11%
Voitsberg 1+ goals
87%
Voitsberg 2+ goals
61%
Voitsberg 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Frauental (draw refunded)
27%
Voitsberg (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frauental at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

Voitsberg away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.10 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frauental attack 1.22 + Voitsberg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Voitsberg attack 2.17 + Frauental defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Frauental scores more
21%
level
21%
Voitsberg scores more
58%

Voitsberg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Voitsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Frauental face Voitsberg (Landesliga - Steiermark)

Landesliga - Steiermark returns with Frauental hosting Voitsberg. Match starts May 1, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Frauental host Voitsberg at Sportplatz Sv Frauental.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.