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Frauental vs Lebring — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Frauental
Frauental
FT
1 – 3
Lebring
Lebring
3/26/2022Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 18Sportplatz Sv Frauental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Frauental33%
×Draw22%
Lebring44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frauental
1.57
Lebring
1.85

Lebring creates 18% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 88 away

creates per match

Frauental
1.22
Lebring
1.74

allows per match

Frauental
1.96
Lebring
1.93

finishing

Frauental+0.00on par
Lebring+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frauental ↓

Lebring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Frauental or draw
56%
Frauental or Lebring
78%
Draw or Lebring
67%

Winning margin

Frauental wins by 2+
16%
Lebring wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Frauental 1+ goals
79%
Frauental 2+ goals
46%
Frauental 3+ goals
21%
Lebring 1+ goals
84%
Lebring 2+ goals
55%
Lebring 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Frauental (draw refunded)
43%
Lebring (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frauental at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

Lebring away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.93 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frauental attack 1.22 + Lebring defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.57

Lebring attack 1.74 + Frauental defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Frauental scores more
33%
level
22%
Lebring scores more
44%

Lebring at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lebring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Frauental 1–3 Lebring

Lebring beat Frauental 3-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Sv Frauental in Frauental.