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Frauental vs Lafnitz II — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Frauental
Frauental
FT
1 – 0
Lafnitz II
Lafnitz II
8/5/2022Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 2Sportplatz SV Frauental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Frauental31%
×Draw22%
Lafnitz II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frauental
1.51
Lafnitz II
1.90

Lafnitz II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 75 away

creates per match

Frauental
1.22
Lafnitz II
1.84

allows per match

Frauental
1.96
Lafnitz II
1.80

finishing

Frauental+0.00on par
Lafnitz II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frauental ↓

Lafnitz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Frauental or draw
53%
Frauental or Lafnitz II
78%
Draw or Lafnitz II
69%

Winning margin

Frauental wins by 2+
14%
Lafnitz II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Frauental 1+ goals
78%
Frauental 2+ goals
44%
Frauental 3+ goals
19%
Lafnitz II 1+ goals
85%
Lafnitz II 2+ goals
56%
Lafnitz II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Frauental (draw refunded)
40%
Lafnitz II (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frauental at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

Lafnitz II away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.80 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frauental attack 1.22 + Lafnitz II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.51

Lafnitz II attack 1.84 + Frauental defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Frauental scores more
31%
level
22%
Lafnitz II scores more
47%

Lafnitz II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lafnitz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Frauental 1–0 Lafnitz II

Frauental beat Lafnitz II 1-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on August 5, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Frauental in Frauental.