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Frauental vs Ilz — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Frauental
Frauental
FT
0 – 6
Ilz
Ilz
5/12/2023Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 26Sportplatz Frauental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Frauental33%
×Draw23%
Ilz44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frauental
1.54
Ilz
1.82

Ilz creates 18% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 88 away

creates per match

Frauental
1.22
Ilz
1.69

allows per match

Frauental
1.96
Ilz
1.85

finishing

Frauental+0.00on par
Ilz+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frauental ↓

Ilz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Frauental or draw
56%
Frauental or Ilz
77%
Draw or Ilz
67%

Winning margin

Frauental wins by 2+
16%
Ilz wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Frauental 1+ goals
79%
Frauental 2+ goals
45%
Frauental 3+ goals
20%
Ilz 1+ goals
84%
Ilz 2+ goals
54%
Ilz 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Frauental (draw refunded)
43%
Ilz (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frauental at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

Ilz away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.85 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frauental attack 1.22 + Ilz defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ilz attack 1.69 + Frauental defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Frauental scores more
33%
level
23%
Ilz scores more
44%

Ilz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ilz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frauental vs Ilz

Ilz beat Frauental 6-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on May 12, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Frauental in Frauental.