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Fratria vs Ustrem Donchevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Fratria
Fratria
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ustrem Donchevo
Ustrem Donchevo
6/1/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 30Stadion Staro Oryahovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fratria77%
×Draw14%
Ustrem Donchevo9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fratria
2.92
Ustrem Donchevo
0.93

Fratria creates 214% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 105 away

creates per match

Fratria
3.23
Ustrem Donchevo
1.24

allows per match

Fratria
0.62
Ustrem Donchevo
2.62

finishing

Fratria+0.00on par
Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fratria ↓

Ustrem Donchevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Fratria or draw
91%
Fratria or Ustrem Donchevo
86%
Draw or Ustrem Donchevo
23%

Winning margin

Fratria wins by 2+
57%
Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Fratria 1+ goals
94%
Fratria 2+ goals
78%
Fratria 3+ goals
55%
Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals
61%
Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals
24%
Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fratria (draw refunded)
89%
Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fratria at home — creates 3.23, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Ustrem Donchevo away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.62 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fratria attack 3.23 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.92

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.24 + Fratria defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Fratria scores more
77%
level
14%
Ustrem Donchevo scores more
9%

Fratria at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Fratria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fratria 4 – 0 Ustrem Donchevo

Fratria beat Ustrem Donchevo 4-0 in Third League - Northeast on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Staro Oryahovo in Staro Oryahovo.